Well, I knew writing that Pats piece on Saturday was going to lead
to a Pats blowout....
Power Rankings
32.) Oakland Raiders (0-4 = 51-103)
They're still not any good after changing coaches and taking a
week off. They now get to welcome the hottest QB in the NFL. At least the last
time they played a 'top' QB, they shackled him when they played Tommy Boy.
There's still not anything to get too excited about other than maybe them
responding well to Tony Sparano.
31.) Jacksonville Jaguars (0-5 = 67-169)
That was by far their most competitive game of the year and they
didn't score 10 points. Somehow, they were on pace to give up more points than
the Broncos scored last year until that game. Now, they're only on pace to give
up ~500 points this season. Still terrible, but slightly less so, I guess. One
thing they do well, though, is rush the passer. Not sure how, but Gus Bradley's
defense can at least get to the QB.
30.) Tennessee Titans (1-4 = 88-139)
Awful loss. Personal story here; I entered Sunday with the Titans
staring me at the face at '+1', road dogs at home. I thought that was a joke
line. I got better odds betting them straight up, which I did. Of course, they
blow a 28-3 lead (something I feared was coming the second Locker left when
they were up 21-3) and lose by, you guessed it, one point. That's why gambling
sucks.
29.) New York Jets (1-4 = 79-127)
They actually had performed reasonably well through four weeks,
losing only out-of-conference games to three teams much higher up this list.
Then, they took a trip to Kansas City and got rocked by the best QB in football
right now. Of course, they also put up a fat zero points against a pretty
mediocre defense. The Jets are a mess, and they'll probably lose Rex - which is
a shame.
28.) Washington Redskins (1-4 = 112-136)
They fought, I guess, on Monday Night. Kirk Cousins is obviously
not the answer. He was better against Seattle than he was against the Giants 10
days earlier at home, but that was a pretty low bar to cross over. The defense
is still too reliant on blitzing. That works when you are facing the Jaguars
and Chad Henne who can't move. Russell Wilson is a different story.
27.) Tampa Bay Buccaneers (1-4 = 103-156)
The best thing that may have happened this year to the Buccaneers
is that 56-14 loss. That shook them up. Everyone on the team has played better
since then. Of course, it helps to get guys like Foster and McCoy back on
defense, and start Glennon over McCown. The last two weeks they've gone on the
road and beaten the Steelers and nearly the Saints. This team will fights as
all Lovie Smith teams will.
26.) Miami Dolphins (2-2 = 96-97)
I don't really know what to think of Miami. They looked so good in
their wins. They looked so pitiful in their losses. Ryan Tannehill was almost
benched one week and then looked like a hero the next. The defense has so much
talent but the scheme doesn't suit the players all that well. The Dolphins
should be a lot better, and maybe they end up playing a lot better; but who
really knows at this point?
25.) St. Louis Rams (1-3 = 84-119)
Austin Davis is so much like Sam Bradford from last year. He'll
put up crazy stats when his team is already down 24 points. The Rams will end
up losing close, Davis will have good visual numbers, but people will forget
how sub-par he was when the Rams were getting killed early. He may have some
qualities Bradford did not, but I think he's nowhere near as good as his stats
will indicate. Also, is it about time to put out an APB for Robert Quinn?
24.) Cleveland Browns (2-2 = 103-105)
Somehow, they have the 3rd best Offensive DVOA in football. That
won't last because it basically can't. There is no way their offense is
actually this good. Interesting to note that Brian Hoyer is vastly
outperforming Tom Brady in 2014 and just like Tom, Hoyer has no one real to
throw to. He's missing his best weapon and his top tight end has been in and
out of the lineup. Does anyone say anything about Hoyer's situation?
23.) Minnesota Vikings (2-3 = 101-126)
The Vikings were in an awful position in Green Bay, having to
start Ponder on a short week, and I really hope Teddy B is back soon. He has
such potential, such incredible potential. It was such a shame to see him get
hurt so quickly. The Vikings are going to be a tough out each week, but only
one half of the team can do anything if Christian Ponder is involved.
22.) New Orleans Saints (2-3 = 132-141)
Something is very wrong with this team. Sure, the defense is
deplorable, but let's get past that for a minute. Something is up with that
offense. They just are not dynamic. Their normal plays aren't working because
unless they game to get the ball to Crooks, no one is getting open other than
Jimmy Graham, who seemingly gets hurt every other week. Brees is starting to
flail the ball around as well, and now he's doing it at home. I'm fearful for
them.
21.) Houston Texans (3-2 = 104-87)
Good defense, but that offense is horrendous. I'm surprised they
haven't turned to Mallett yet to see what he has. There's no way that
Fitzpatrick is leading them to the playoffs, especially in an AFC that has a
lot more contenders than them. The Texans need to get more production from any
receiver not named Hopkins. Where has their TE game gone. I thought that is all
Bill O'Brien can do?
20.) Dallas Cowboys (4-1 = 135-103)
I really don't believe in them despite the 4-1 record. I think
that record is inflated by playing some pretty bad teams. Beating the Titans
isn't a huge deal. They really shouldn't have beaten St. Louis. The Saints are
way worse than anyone thought. And the Texans are inflated themselves at 3-2.
The collapse might be even more painful (or hilarious, depending on your view
of America's team) this time around when they start 4-1.
19.) Pittsburgh Steelers (3-2 = 114-108)
The Steelers might end up sneaking into the race for the #6 seed
just based on that piss easy schedule they have, but they are not a good team.
A good team doesn't let the Jags anywhere close to them. A good team just blows
a team like Jacksonville out. It is sad because right now the
Roethlisberger-to-Brown connection is as fun as anything in the NFL.
18.) Atlanta Falcons (2-3 = 151-143)
They were thoroughly outclassed in that game, and they seem to
have serious problems outdoors, but the Falcons still have a dynamic offense. I
realize that Antone Smith's efficiency will drop the more chances he gets, but
can they get that guy the ball more? The defense played OK, I guess, but they
need to score at least 24 to really have a solid chance of winning any game.
17.) Chicago Bears (2-3 = 116-131)
Tough loss for a team that could have had a really nice 2-3 start.
Cuter will never stop throwing 3-4 lazy passes a game that put the Bears in
serious trouble. Those receivers are still not healthy either. Most concerning
is their defense continues to be unable to play coverage. They went from having
a terrible run defense but being passable against the pass in 2013, to being
the exact opposite this season. Of course, this all after being brilliant at
both in 2012.
16.) Kansas City Chiefs (2-3 = 119-101)
They played a good game, but in the end were a little outmatched
off of a short week going on the road in an easy come-down game after last
Monday Night. Their defense will continue to be stout, but they need more use
out of their WRs than they've gotten so far. I don't put that all on Smith.
Donnie Avery has done nothing, and Bowe needs to play better.
15.) Buffalo Bills (3-2 = 98-89)
That was a win that a strong team pulls out. They had no real
right winning that game. Of course, if Alex Henery just hits a field goal or
two, they lose, but the Bills of old would not have capitalized on that
opportunity. Kyle Orton is not a great QB, but he can do enough with the skill
guys around him. Jim Schwartz has that defense on fire. We'll know quite a bit
more about this team come Monday after this Patriots game.
14.) Carolina Panthers (3-2 = 104-120)
Huge win. They were staring 2-3 in the face down 21-7 to the
Bears. Look at their schedule coming up. They go to Cincinnati and Green Bay,
before hosting Seattle and New Orleans, and finishing going to Philadelphia. It
gets far easier after that (no team over .500 over the last 6 games), but they
have to be alive out of that five game stretch. If they can go 2-3, they might
sneak out this division again.
13.) Philadelphia Eagles (4-1 = 156-132)
Their 4-1 record is not as fraudulent as the Cowboys', but it is
not that exciting either. They've taken full advantage of a silly run of
special teams and defensive TDs (including two blocked punts for TDs, which is
just silly) that in no way is sustainable. Their offense still hasn't been
clicking, and the defense is very up and down. What is scary for the rest of
the NFC is that maybe the offense does start clicking. What then? They can run
and hide in the NFC East in the next few weeks with a few wins.
12) New England Patriots (3-2 = 123-107)
Only up four spots after that win? Well, when they will likely
never play that well again... yes. They weren't as bad as 14-41, and they
weren't as good as 43-17. They're somewhere in the middle. Right now, I do
think there are 11 teams that would beat them on a neutral field. Luckily for
New England, none seem to ever play in the AFC East.
11.) New York Giants (3-2 = 133-111)
Just when I think I'm out... they keep pushing me back in. This
won't work long term. I know that. Picks are a coming. Stupid losses are a
coming. Everything that has made thinking the Giants will be good in 2012-13
will come home to roost this year as well. I just know it.
10.) San Francisco 49ers
(3-2 = 110-106)
Good win for a team that continues to just be well coached and
play up to their strengths. It is weird, that after all the losses of personnel
due to free agency, injury and suspension, and the supposed ‘Rise of Kaep’ that
this team still wins with defense and running the ball. They play more like the
2011 49ers than they have since Kaepernick took over. Not that this is a bad
thing.
9.) Green Bay Packers
(3-2 = 134-106)
The Packers offense can look so good against teams that have no
interior pass rush. The Packers offense can also look so bad against those
teams. The Lions game did happen, with them holding the Packers to 7 points
without something fluky happening. Still, what they’ve done in the last two
weeks is get everyone excited again about what this offense can be. The defense
is still untrustworthy, but it was exciting to see Julius Peppers make an
awesome play again.
8.) Detroit Lions (3-2
= 99-79)
I still think they are the best team in the division, but they
have to navigate this stretch without Calvin. Getting kickers who can hit more
than a third of their kicks will help them do that, as if they had one of those
they would be 4-1 right now. They have a few tough division games coming up.
One thing I know is that this defense is for real. They play with the intensity
they used to in the Schwartz era, but also the discipline that resembles their
mannequin Head Coach. Good combination there.
7.) Baltimore Ravens
(3-2 = 116-80)
I’m not shocked they lost, because Indianapolis is a good team. I
am shocked that they were not able to stop the Colts pass rush, or figure out a
way to counter the Colts’ blitzes. The Ravens were seemingly unprepared, something
that you can rarely say about a team this good. They still have a very solid
roster from top to bottom, and it low looks like Cincinnati has come back
towards the pack, somewhat.
6.) Arizona Cardinals
(3-1 = 86-86)
Hard to knock them too much for losing that game. That last TD was
bullshit, but they were competitive in that game. Losing Calais Campbell really
hurts, but it seems like they will get Carson Palmer back, which will help a
lot. That offense looked good in Week 1, and looked positively lucky to score
at all in the weeks following.
5.) Indianapolis Colts
(3-2 = 156-108)
Good, old-fashioned Colts win. They won a game without playing
their best, with turning it over in the red zone twice, with terrible
officiating calls going against them, and with Andrew Luck playing a ‘C’ level
game. They won despite all that, and won rather comfortably. This is a good
team that was very unlucky to lose to Philadelphia, and lost to a great team by
not too much on the road. Coupled with their schedule, they can go on a run
coming up.
4.) Cincinnati Bengals
(3-1 = 97-76)
I moved New England up four spots, so I’m dropping Cincinnati
three. There obviously was some troubling signs about that game. I could care
less about that ‘not ready for primetime’ bullshit. What I do care more about
is their lack of pass rush. The Patriots offensive line played well, but the
athletes there on the line from 2012-13 aren’t as good now, and Geno Atkins is
taking a while to come back from his injury. Still a very good team, though.
3.) San Diego Chargers
(4-1 = 113-63)
You realize that through five weeks this is the NFL’s best scoring
defense? Now, they’ve played some light-weights offensively (EJ Manuel’s Bills,
the Jets, the Jaguars) and that will end soon (not this week… Hello Oakland!)
and they might become a mediocre defense, which is likely what they are, but
the Chargers offense is clicking so well in the passing game right now. Philip
Rivers is the easy MVP through five weeks of the season.
2.) Seattle Seahawks
(3-1 = 110-83)
You know you are a great team when you can play a sloppy game,
commit fifteen penalties, do all this on the road, and still win by 10 points.
Sure, Washington is not a good team, but the Seahawks know themselves so well.
They know that they have a bad o-line, so they compensate. I think they
secretly know that their pass coverage isn’t what it was last year (especially
Maxwell and Chancellor), so they’re playing bigger up front. Just a very good
team in the midst of a great run.
1.) Denver Broncos
(3-1 = 116-87)
By DVOA, they have the #1 offense and #2 defense. That is a good
combination. I don’t think the defense is that good, but given who they’ve
played and how those teams have performed in other games, I start to understand
it. Von Miller looks better each week. So does Demaryius. The real star, so
far, has been Emannuel Sanders, who looks like he was born to play with Peyton.
Postseason Projections
AFC
1.) Denver Broncos (13-3)
2.) Indianapolis Colts (12-4)
3.) Cincinnati Bengals (11-5)
4.) New England Patriots (10-6)
5.) San Diego Chargers (12-4)
5.) San Diego Chargers (12-4)
6.) Baltimore Ravens (10-6)
NFC
1.) Seattle Seahawks (12-4)
2.) Detroit Lions (11-5)
3.) New York Giants (11-5)
4.) Carolina Panthers (10-6)
5.) Arizona Cardinals (11-5)
6.) Green Bay Packers (10-6)
Looking Ahead to Next Week's Games
Byes: Kansas City (2-3); New
Orleans (2-3)
After getting all of the good teams on a bye two weeks ago, this
is four straight bye teams that are pretty marginal (Oakland & Miami last
week). I’m sure the Saints don’t want a bye right now of that stirring victory.
It does allow them to rest up before a hellish six-game stretch coming up.
15.) Jacksonville Jaguars
(0-5) @ Tennessee Titans (1-4) (1:00 - CBS)
I call it “The Self-Fulfilling Prophecy of the AFC South Sucking”
Sunday, as the Jaguars and Titans play in a game no one in Nashville wants to
watch. Honestly, who would want to watch this game? For years, one of the
oft-levied criticism’s of Manning was that the AFC South was a bad division;
for years that was garbage. Now, it isn’t. Both teams are not good.
14.) San Diego Chargers
(4-1) @ Oakland Raiders (1-4) (4:05 - CBS)
13.) Denver Broncos (3-1)
@ New York Jets (1-4) (1:00 - CBS)
12.) Baltimore Ravens (3-2)
@ Tampa Bay Buccaneers (1-4) (1:00 - CBS)
11.) Washington Redskins
(1-4) @ Arizona Cardinals (3-1) (4:25 - FOX)
I call it “One good, one slightly less good” Sunday, as we get
four games where one team that is square in the playoff picture (if not
Conference Supremacy picture in the case of San Diego and Denver) go to play a
team that most certainly is not. I guess the Cardinals, if they’re missing
Palmer and have to actually start Logan Thomas, are terrible themselves, but at
least that will make the game competitive.
10.) Detroit Lions (3-2)
@ Minnesota Vikings (2-3) (1:00 - FOX)
9.) San Francisco 49ers
(3-2) @ St. Louis Rams (1-3) (MNF - ESPN)
8.) Pittsburgh Steelers
(3-2) @ Cleveland Browns (2-2) (1:00 - CBS)
I call it “Division Monsters vs. Minnows – but in the Minnow Pond”
Sunday and Monday, as we get three division rivalries to kick around, but none
are that appealing. Certainly, Detroit can do Lion-ish things and lose, and the
Browns can put a stake in the Steelers and likely send them to last place
through six weeks, and I guess the Rams can do what they nearly did to Seattle
last year on Monday Night (and not what they did do to San Francisco on
Thursday Night – lose by 25). I just am not too interested into seeing if that
can happen.
7.) Dallas Cowboys (4-1)
@ Seattle Seahawks (3-1) (4:25 - FOX)
I call it “What can a great run game get you in 2014” Sunday, as
the Cowboys enter against Seattle with the best run game in the NFL. Sadly for
Dallas, the Seahawks have the best run defense. The Cowboys probably have a
better chance to win if they let Romo air it out, but they probably won’t as
they seem very committed to giving Murray 35 carries a game. The Seahawks are
the better team and they get another opportunity to knock a statistically very
good QB down a few pegs.
6.) Indianapolis Colts (3-2)
@ Houston Texans (3-2) (TNF - CBS)
5.) Green Bay Packers (3-2)
@ Miami Dolphins (2-2) (1:00 - FOX)
I call it “Restoring Order” Sunday, as the once in peril Colts and
Packers take the road against the once top dog Texans and Dolphins. Remember
when the Texans were 2-0 and the Colts were 0-2? Remember when the Packers
looked lousy against Detroit, or when the Dolphins dominated the Patriots and
were poised to start a New World Order in the AFC East? Yeah,, those days are
gone. That said, great pass rushes can make these two QBs look bad; and they
might have to.
4.) Chicago Bears (2-3)
@ Atlanta Falcons (2-3) (4:25 - FOX)
3.) Carolina Panthers (3-2)
@ Cincinnati Bengals (3-1) (1:00 - FOX)
I call it “The loser is in bad shape in one, and the winner is
great in the other” as being 3-3 (or 3-2) after 6 weeks is not a bad position.
The winner of Chicago/Atlanta isn’t automatically a playoff contender, but the
loser is in a really tough position. For Carolina, Cincinnati, the loser isn’t
really out of it (though with Carolina’s upcoming schedule, maybe so; then
again, given Carolina’s division, maybe they’re never out of it), but the
winner is in really good position. Both should be fun games full of offense in
the first and defense in the second.
2.) New England Patriots
(3-2) @ Buffalo Bills (3-2) (1:00 - FOX)
1.) New York Giants (3-2)
@ Philadelphia Eagles (4-1) (SNF - NBC)
I call it “An Early Season Battle for 1st Place”
Sunday, as that is exactly what these games are. The Patriots and Bills winner
leaves with 1st place all to themselves six weeks into the season
(if it is Buffalo, they leave 2-0 in the division to the Pats 0-2). The loser
leaves at 3-3 and is squarely in the mediocrity of the AFC. The Giants can, in
four weeks, move from 0-2 to a share of 1st place (assuming Dallas
loses). Obviously, the Giants would not be in outright first place, but they’ll
have beaten two NFC East teams on the road. That should be a great game, but
given the uncompetitiveness of most prime-time games this year, it probably won’t
be.
