1.) New York Giants select
Eli Manning (QB, Mississippi) - Grade: A
Yes, I realize the Chargers actually made this pick, and then got
a bounty from the Giants (including picks that turned into Shawne Merriman and
Nate Kaeding), but I'm grading the team who got their guy. Eli Manning wasn't
great in the beginning, and he's been, on his overall play lone, the worst of
the three main QBs picked in the draft, but they don't win two Super Bowls
without Eli, certainly not the 2nd one, in Manning's one true HOF-worthy
season.
2.) Oakland Raiders select
Robert Gallery (OT, Iowa) - Grade: C
If the Raiders drafted Robert Gallery at #12 to play guard and
paid him like a #12 pick that played guard, then this pick would probably be a
B+, but they didn’t. I can’t fault the Raiders too much. Out of all their
Top-10 picks in these years, this was the one where they picked a guy that was
the consensus top prospect, but he never worked out at tackle.
3.) Arizona Cardinals select
Larry Fitzgerald (WR, Pittsburgh) - Grade: A+
I started this in the 2003 redraft, but when you pick a Hall of
Famer, no matter where, you get an A+. Larry Fitzgerald didn’t have the
greatest rookie season (WRs rarely do), but he had a great 2005 season (100+
catches), and took off from there. Apart from one season where he was saddled
with really putrid QBs (2012), he has been putting up massive seasons year-after-year-after-year.
4.) San Diego Chargers
select Philip Rivers (QB, NC State) - Grade: A
We can debate the Chargers ultimately choosing Rivers over Brees
after Brees suffered his torn labrum at the end of 2005, but in the end Philip
Rivers has more than played up to what you should expect from a #4 pick QB. He
continued to play well as the talent drained off that team from 2006-2010, and
then rebounded in his 10th season to play some of the best, most
contained, smartest football of his career last season.
5.) Washington Redskins
select Sean Taylor (S, Miami) - Grade: INC
I thought about actually giving this a grade, but it’s really
impossible. Sean Taylor probably wasn’t as good as people remember him being,
but he did have a whole host of highlight-reel plays, my personal favorite
being his really ballsy scoop and score for a TD in the 2005 Wild Card Game against
the Buccaneers. His death is something a lot of football fans will never get
over, but like shows that end after one or two seasons, his overall legacy was,
sadly, probably raised in the eyes of many.
6.) Cleveland Browns select
Kellen Winslow Jr. (TE, Miami) - Grade: B-
It’s hard to remember how terribly his career started, breaking
his leg in his 3rd game to end his 2004 season, and then breaking it
again in a motorcycle accident to end his 2005 season before it started.
Thinking of that start, it is very surprising how well he rebounded. Winslow
had really solid seasons in 2006 and 2007 for the Browns. I can’t fault the
Browns as much as Winslow himself for the missed 2005 season, and he did
provide good value. I also never realized how sneakily good his three year run
in Tampa was.
7.) Detroit Lions select Roy
Williams (WR, Texas) - Grade: C
Well, he was the best WR the Lions picked in their three year run
of picking WRs in the 1st round. His largest problem was an
inability to stay healthy, as the one season he was healthy for 16 games he put
up a slash line of 82/1310/7, and that was in 2006, the year before Calvin was
drafted. The Lions also, amazingly, swindled the Cowboys out of a 1st
round pick in trading him during the 2008 season. But aside from the 2006
season, he never even had one good season.
8.) Atlanta Falcons select
DeAngelo Hall (CB, Virginia Tech) - Grade: B
Since leaving Atlanta before the 2008 season to join the Raiders,
DeAngelo Hall has become something of a lightning rod. The stats community
hates him, as does a lot of the public who dislikes his brashness, but he
manages to game his way to 4-5 picks a year and played well in some high
profile games. That all said, in his Atlanta days, he was a solid cornerback,
arguably deservedly pro-bowl caliber in 2005 and 2006, someone capable of
covering and tackling in run support.
9.) Jacksonville Jaguars
select Reggie Williams (WR, Washington) - Grade: D
I have pretty low standards for picks, some would say more
realistic standards. Reggie Williams was not good, not even close to Top-10
pick worthy, but he provided some value. Look, no one was going to put up big
volume numbers on those run-and-defense Jags teams from 2004-2008, and while
Williams did not, he at least played every game for five years. He even had a
10 TD season in 2007 (albeit on only 38 receptions). That all said, he was not
good, and was out of the NFL two years after that 10 TD season. Not a good
pick, not even close.
10.) Houston Texans select
Dunta Robinson (CB, South Carolina) - Grade: C+
Dunta Robinson had a really good rookie season, with 6 picks and 3
sacks, with 74 tackles for a bad team. He never approached that again in his
following four seasons in Houston, leaving right before the team got good.
Robinson made a boatload of money just off that rookie season, because I don’t
know what else the Falcons gave him 22.5MM guaranteed for. Anyway, Robinson was
not a bad player, but a disappointing one who never got better off a very good
rookie season.
11.) Pittsburgh Steelers
select Ben Roethlisberger (QB, Miami OH) - Grade: A+
I believe that Ben Roethlisberger will be a Hall of Famer, thus
the A+ pick. I believe the Roethlisberger is the best of the three QBs, the
only thing keeping the Steelers from being a 4-12 team right now, and they got
him at #11. The Steelers were built to win when Ben got there, but as the team
got older, Ben got better and proved he could put up huge numbers when asked to
throw 500 times, like he did in 2009 or this past season.
12.) New York Jets select
Jonathan Vilma (MLB, Miami) - Grade: B-
Jonathan Vilma had some really nice seasons, and was well above average
for most of his Jets career, including a monster season in 2005 around a
terrible Jets team. Vilma was able to flex right into a 3-4 later in his
career, but that was after he left the Jets. They probably expected a little
more from Vilma, but there is a lot of value in a good player who plays a lot
of games at only a good level.
13.) Buffalo Bills select
Lee Evans (WR, Wisconsin) - Grade: B
Surprised? Lee Evans is probably most famous for his drop in the
end zone as a Raven in the 2011 AFC Championship Game, but before that he had a
surprisingly good 7 year career in Buffalo. Evans was extremely durable,
missing just four games over that 7 year career. Also add in that he had about
70 QBs throw to him in that period, and his 16-gm average of 59/880/6.4, which
isn’t that bad.
14.) Chicago Bears select
Tommie Harris (DT, Oklahoma) - Grade: B+
Tommie Harris was on the path towards this being an easy A when he
tore his Achilles late in the 2006 season. Tommie Harris was arguably the most
disruptive DT in the NFL in 2005, and was having a similarly good season in
2006. He actually came back to have a nice couple years in Chicago, including
an 8 sack campaign in 2007, but he was never nearly as good against the run or
as consistent, but he has that three season run of really great play.
15.) Tampa Bay Buccaneers
select Michael Clayton (WR, LSU) - Grade: C
Has anyone ever had a great rookie season and still ended up a
bust, not including players who left the league because of
injury/suspension/etc.? Michael Clayton put up a 80/1193/7 season as a rookie.
That is not a misprint. He had an all-time good rookie season. In his next
three seasons he had a combined 87/1029/1. Yup, one TD. And he played 40 of 48
games in that span. That rookie season keeps this from being a D, but it is
almost funny how bad he became.
16.) Philadelphia Eagles
select Shawn Andrews (G, Arkansas) - Grade: B
Shawn Andrews, much like Tommie Harris, had a really nice career
at times, but also was a nothing at times. Unlike Harris, it wasn’t totally
injury based but just weird stuff like a mysterious ‘back injury’ that ended
his career in Philly. In between his injury-marred ’04 and ’08 seasons, he had
three really good seasons for the Eagles from ’05-’07, including an All-Pro
season in 2006.
17.) Denver Broncos select
DJ Williams (LB, Miami) - Grade: B
DJ Williams was the opposing of Andrews and Harris, providing less
peak value, but far more sustained value. DJ Williams only once got hurt until
the tail end of his career, and was consistently good. He was first one of the
main players of very good defenses from ’05-’07, and then a stat-muncher on bad
defenses, before getting phased out as the Broncos went from terrible to really
good. Not a memorable career, but one that was rarely anything less than good.
18.) New Orleans Saints
select Will Smith (DE, Ohio St.) - Grade: A-
Getting a player this consistently durable and productive this
late in the 1st round is very good use of resources. Until this year’s
preseason trip to IR, Will Smith never got hurt (missed five games through 9
seasons), averaging 7.5 sacks a season in that time period including two very
good campaigns in the Saints two most memorable seasons (’06 & ’09).
Anyway, Smith’s productive career is likely over, but the Saints got great
return.
19.) Miami Dolphins select
Vernon Carey (OT, Miami) - Grade: B
Vernon Carey was essentially the Dolphins version of DJ Williams,
a good player for a long period of time, but someone who was never pro-bowl
worthy (I guess Williams did make a pro-bowl, but the comparison still holds).
He rarely missed games, and was always above average. Not a terrible legacy,
and for the Dolphins good value for the 19th pick.
20.) Minnesota Vikings
select Kenechi Udeze (DE, USC) - Grade: INC
If I’m going to give the Redskins an Incomplete for the Taylor
pick, it is only fair to give the Vikings an INC for this pick, as Udeze had to
retire after the 2007 season, right before the two best years the Vikings had
since his being drafted, after being diagnosed with Leukemia. Udeze had a nice
2007 season and looked to be coming close to fulfilling all the promise he had,
but then cancer does what it does.
21.) New England Patriots
select Vince Wilfork (DT, Miami) - Grade: A
Chances are when you are 32 coming off of a serious injury, the
best days of your career are likely over, especially when arm strength is
really important and that injury was a triceps injury. That said, Wilfork has
done enough and given the Patriots enough value before 2013 to already make
this a great pick. Wilfork is the only defensive player on the Patriots to have
won a Super Bowl with them, being a consistent starter at the nose since he was
drafted. Great player and a great pick by the Pats.
22.) Buffalo Bills select JP
Losman (QB, Tulane) - Grade: C-
QBs are, rightfully, held to a higher standard in the 1st
round as they really do bust less than other positions (as a point, just look
at the ’04 QB group), but by any position standard this was not a good pick.
Losman went from inaccurate to strangely accurate very quickly (under 50% in ’05
to above 62% in ’06-’07), but threw like no touchdowns and all of the interceptions,
apart from the 2006 season that saves this from being a D. By ’07 he had been
passed by Trent Edwards, and that was basically it for him.
23.) Seattle Seahawks select
Marcus Tubbs (DT, Texas) - Grade: C+
The beginning of the end of the Ruskell era in Seattle was this,
wasting a 1st round pick on an injury-prone player who was never
that good except for being fat. I always liked him since his name was ‘Tubbs’,
a great nickname for a fat guy. Tubbs had a nice season in the Seahawks Super
Bowl season, but got injured early in 2006 and never played again, which is a
little surprising. The only reason he’s not worse than a C was the minimum
expected duration of value for a 1st round pick is 4 years (a normal
rookie contract), and he gave the Seahawks three, including one good one.
24.) St. Louis Rams select
Steven Jackson (RB, Oregon St.) - Grade: A
If you are going to pick a RB in the first round and you are not
getting Adrian Peterson, than this is about as good as you are going to do. Steven
Jackson was the backup on a team that made the playoffs in his rookie season,
then took over for Faulk and played really well for another 8 seasons in St.
Louis. He had a 16/gm average of 292/1238/6.8, which is really good production
for a running back over the long term. Very good pick for a team that missed on
everything for the next five seasons.
25.) Green Bay Packers
select Ahmad Carroll (CB, Arkansas) - Grade: C-
Yeah, this was a waste. I guess he played a lot of games in 2004
and 2005, but the second they could get some other people to play corner, they
did. The Packers never rued this pick as they hit on most from 2005 onwards,
this was an awful pick. Carroll did come on to an aging team in need of an
overhaul, but the Packers could have used this pick in that overhaul.
26.) Cincinnati Bengals
select Chris Perry (RB, Michigan) - Grade: F
I don’t like giving F’s. In fact, I’ve given just three over 89
picks through 2002 on. This is my first for 2004, and it was really hard to not
do this. The pick was made just before Rudi Johnson became a good player, so
maybe Perry didn’t get the opportunities, but whatever opportunities he did get
he failed so badly. He actually had a useful season receiving in 2005, but his
overall rushing numbers are just so bad, a career 606 yards on 177 receptions,
with just 2 TDs, pathetic return for a 1st round investment.
27.) Houston Texans select
Jason Babin (DE, West. Michigan) - Grade: C+
Jason Babin has had sack totals of 12.5-18.0-7.0-7.5 in the last
four seasons. Too bad those weren’t on the Texans. On the Texans he had just
three seasons before he was traded to Seattle for Michael Boulware, a nice
double-dump trade. In those three seasons he had just 13 sacks, becoming a pure
situational pass rusher before he left. Babin had a decent rookie season and
then turned into nothing.
28.) Carolina Panthers
select Chris Gamble (CB, Ohio St.) - Grade: B
Gamble is the Carolina what DJ Williams was to Denver and Vernon
Carey was to Miami, a good player who played consistently for a long time.
Gamble retired after 2012, and before that season he was a consistent 4-6
picks, 50-70 tackles each year for eight seasons. Gamble played on some good
teams and gave very good return to the Panthers.
29.) Atlanta Falcons select
Michael Jenkins (WR, Ohio St.) - Grade: C
Michael Jenkins provided comically little value in his rookie
season (7 catches for 119 yards), but then was a consistently average player,
with seasons like 36/508/3, and 53/532/4, and then his career best in Matt Ryan’s
rookie season, 50/777/3. Not exactly great stuff, but not awful either. It
probably also hurt his development that he was playing with Michael Vick in his
first three seasons.
30.) Detroit Lions select
Kevin Jones (RB, Virginia Tech) - Grade: C-
Kevin Jones had a very nice rookie season, putting up a 241/1133/5
for a bad Lions team. Sadly, he never came close to that again on other
similarly bad Lions teams. Going to a Mike Martz, pass-happy offense helped his
receiving numbers (61 catches in 2006), but he never got any better as a
runner. Jones flamed out as his Lions career ended, giving far less return than
a 1st round RB should.
31.) San Francisco 49ers
select Reshaun Woods (WR, Oklahoma St.) - Grade: F
My God was the back-quarter of the 1st round bad.
Rashaun Woods had 7 catches for 160 yards in his rookie season (hey, slightly
better than Michael Jenkins) and then never played a game again. He spent ’05 on
IR, was traded to San Diego for not-quite-a-bust Sammy Davis in 2006, along
with a pick, never played there and then went to Europe and Canada. And you
wonder why the 49ers went 6-26 in 2004 & 2005.
32.) New England Patriots
select Benjamin Watson (TE, Georgia) - Grade: C+
Benjamin Watson’s most famous moment was running down Champ Bailey
on his INT-return in the 2005 Divisional Round. That’s probably not what Bill
Belichick envisioned when he made this pick, especially considering it took all
of one play for the Broncos to score a TD right after. The Patriots never threw
to Watson much, but that’s because he dropped everything and until Gronk showed
up the Patriots didn’t realize TEs existed, despite drafting two of them in the
1st round.
Best Picks from the Later Rounds
2nd.) New York Giants select Chris Snee with the 34th pick.
2nd.) Indianapolis Colts select Bob Sanders with the 44th pick.
It's probably homerism to put Sanders up with Snee, a stalwart on two Super Bowl winning lines, but Sanders' peak value was every bit as good as Troy Polamalu. Sanders was healthy for most of '04 and '05, '07 playing well (hey, guess what, that's his rookie deal), and his return in '06 coincided with a Super Bowl run. Of course, after the Colts gave him an extension it all went to hell. As for Snee, he proved nepotism can work, as he was dating/engaged to Tom Coughlin's daughter at the time.
3rd.) Arizona Cardinals select Darnell Dockett with the 64th pick.
It's hard to believe Dockett has already played 10 seasons, all with Arizona, but he has, and been very good all time. He's missed a grand total of two games in those 10 years as well. Tons of sacks all over the place, including tying a Super Bowl record with 3 in Super Bowl XLIII. A pretty good pick right there.
4th.) Kansas City Chiefs select Jared Allen with the 126th pick
Jared Allen gave the Chiefs four years of really good play, then two 2nd round picks in a trade to the Vikings. Allen was in his Chiefs career pretty much the only consistent part of those defenses that weren't always terrible, and then gave the Chiefs over half their sacks in his final season there. Not too shabby for the 126th pick.
5th.) Indianapolis Colts select Jake Scott with the 141st pick.
Sure, this may seem a little homeristic, but if you look at who was picked in that 1st round, there's no competition. The only two active players from the 5th round are Antonio Smith and Josh Scobee. The only other players to have any type of career were Erik Coleman, Michael Turner and DJ Hackett. Jake Scott was a consistently good player for the Colts for four seasons, and then had an All-Pro caliber season in 2008 for Tennessee.
6th.) Green Bay Packers select Corey Williams with the 179th pick.
God, the bottom part of this draft was a washout. Corey Williams wasn't even that good, but at least had a solid career and played through his rookie deal with the Packers. He then had a couple nice seasons in Detroit before leaving football. The Packers got rid of Williams when they could under Thompson, but until then he was a nice bridge between the Barnett/Harris/Kampman defense and the Matthews/Woodson/Collins era.
7th.) Green Bay Packers select Scott Wells with the 251st pick.
It was very close between Wells and Shane Olivea, who had a nice little career in San Diego before abruptly retiring. Wells had a long, slightly injury-prone career in Green Bay before leaving to have a even more injury-prone career in St. Louis. Still, getting the value the Packers got from the 251st pick is a little absurd on the whole.
